Understanding the Insignificance of Your Web Traffic

I suspect that this morning’s Wall Street Journal piece by Mark Penn, America’s Newest Profession: Blogging, is going to go viral in the blogosphere, but not for the reasons that he intended. Rather, it’s going to go viral due to the disputes over this section of his article (emphasis mine):

It takes about 100,000 unique visitors a month to generate an income of $75,000 a year. Bloggers can get $75 to $200 for a good post, and some even serve as “spokesbloggers” — paid by advertisers to blog about products. As a job with zero commuting, blogging could be one of the most environmentally friendly jobs around — but it can also be quite profitable. For sites at the top, the returns can be substantial. At some point the value of the Huffington Post will no doubt pass the value of the Washington Post.

If you explore the links from Mr. Penn’s post (which I have preserved in my quote) you’ll find his data sources for his 100,000 visitors per month = $75,000 U.S. claim. I’m skeptical. Even if you did have 100,000 visitors per month (1.2 m per year), I still think $75,000 would be a tough sell. Volume of traffic is in itself valueless – the revenue-generating actions taken by that traffic makes a world of difference.

At Mr. Penn’s rate, a single unique visitor produces roughly $0.01 worth of revenue over the course of a year. A unique visitor can mean anything – it could be someone who stumbles across an ancient article sitting deep in a blog’s archives via a Google search or it could be a subscriber who checks the blog multiple times per day. Mr. Penn doesn’t qualify it beyond the simple “unique visitor” unit of measure.

At that rate, my blog is projected to earn roughly $450 this year from 72,000 unique visitors. When I had higher traffic figures  from August 2007 to August 2008 (over 100,000 visitors in that period) I made approximately $100 off of AdSense and Amazon Affiliate marketing combined during that period. Where’s the rest of my Internet money?

I lock horns with a lot of Internet marketers over the value of web-traffic. My philosophy is that not all web traffic is created equal, and a “visit” or a “pageview” ultimately has a dollar-value of $0.00 unless you can prove otherwise with accurately attributed data.

Articles like these illustrate my point beautifully – web traffic is of little-to-no value itself. It’s what your visitors actually do that makes them valuable. 100,000 unique visitors a month means nothing if those visitors don’t do anything of interest of or value to advertisers, sponsors, or affiliates.

This is why most CPM-based advertising models have vanished from the wild – impressions are mostly meaningless and don’t provide enough returns to advertisers to be sustainable. CPC/CPA advertising is meaningful because visitors actually have to do something of value before money changes hands.

As for the payola model of blog monetization. Well, that’s a wholy different (and scary) story.

 

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Poll: What do you do when someone Tweets a pirated version of your product?

I work for a software company, and naturally we’re concerned about piracy. Our internal research indicates that whenever the most recent version of our product is successfully cracked we end up losing roughly up to 10% of our revenue until we thwart the crack or release a new version.

So I have a small dilemma when I see someone Tweet a link to a stolen version of our product online – I want to stop piracy of our product, but I also want to avoid the Streisand Effect. What’s a marketer to do?

The last time I had a question about Twitter etiquette,  I made a poll about it. Well, given that I got some decent feedback last time, I’m inclined to ask again:

POLL: What's the best course of action to follow when someone Tweets a link to a stolen or pirated version of your product?

View Results

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Please ReTweet this poll (if you feel like being awesome.)

 

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Everyone in Your Organization Should Understand Marketing – Working Smarter

I figured that you all might enjoy this, but I put up a quick post over at Working Smarter entitled: Everyone in Your Organization Should Understand Marketing.

Here’s a quick taste:

Everyone from the System Administrator to the Shipping Clerk needs to understand how their work helps the organization advance – they need to understand their organization’s value proposition and how their work fulfills it.

If they don’t understand, then they are much more likely to make counter-productive decisions which ultimately hurt your organization’s ability to meet its goals.

Let me know how you like it!

 

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Mike Arrington, A Man in Full

A Man in Full One of the advantages of changing Marketing Ninja to a personal format instead of an instructive format is that it allows me to discuss issues that are important in the scope of marketing but not wholly marketing unto itself. The meat of this post is an issue that is tremendously more important than marketing can or ever should be; the issue is human decency and the dearth of it in the blogosphere.

A Man in Full is a famous satirical novel written by Tom Wolfe. It documents and satirizes the social dynamics of Atlanta across all divisions of class, race, and other veritable dimensions comprising the diverse socioeconomic strata of the New South. The hero of the book is Charlie Croker, a real estate mogul whose hand has exceeded his grasp and finds himself in a battle to preserve his personal wealth and self-worth against a pack of rabid bankers out for revenge and personal gain, self-serving politicians, and citizens on both sides of the racial divide who each have a stake in the outcome of a city-wide race scandal. Charlie’s very faith in himself is shaken by the sheer ferocity and volume of the attacks on his property and person, but he never relents and never gives up.

Today I read a post by recently-returned-from-hiatus TechCrunch proprietor and co-editor Michael Arrington that inspired me, quite frankly. Mike didn’t inspire me by writing about some new technology or service that is going to change my life; he didn’t inspire me by sparking some great business idea that I’m going to use to become the next Microsoft or Google; and he didn’t inspire me by making me see the world differently than I did before I made my visit to TechCrunch today.

He inspired by reminding me something that I have long been cognizant of but had simply forgotten. Mike reminded me what it’s like to be a human being who’s poured his heart into something only to see it poked, stabbed, and kicked every which way. Mike’s post, entitled “The Rules Apply To Everyone,” reads on the surface like a condensed self-defense against all of the angry, bitter people who have attacked him, his employees, and his work at TechCrunch. But if you read a little deeper into it you can see that it’s a muffled expression of Arrington’s hurt and pain over all of the negativity and vitriol that led Mike to take his much-needed hiatus in the first place.

I am sorry to admit that I have long been one of those people who thought lowly of Mike and company. I thought he was arrogant, I thought he was corrupt, and in general I thought the man was an asshole who cared more about breaking a story first than he did about getting his facts straight. If you look through the TechCrunch archives I’m sure you’ll find many comments authored by yours truly attacking him and his employees for factual mistakes, misrepresentation of facts, and any number of things. I resented the man because I thought it arrogant for one man to dub himself a kingmaker and act accordingly. Consider this an admission of my wrong-doing, unjustified resentment built upon distorted premises, and guilt to that end.

My oft-unexpressed opinion of Mike and company has evolved considerably over the past months, not because of any substantial changes in the demeanor, tone, or content of TechCrunch, but because of the events in my own life.

In May of 2008 I started working as a full-time content marketer, and being the passionate person that I am, I have poured my heart into everything that I do even if it isn’t apparent or obvious to the casual observer. I write much of the new marketing content, including our blog, and I fuss and stress constantly over getting details right and doing the best job I can under the constraints of time, money, and life in general. If I can successfully educate at least one person on the benefit and value of using a product like ours, then I feel like I’ve done my job – but obviously the constraints of cost-effective marketing demand that I educate several hundred at once (damn those constraints!) Although I do a good job of not taking things personally if a single entry falls flat, I would be crushed if for some reason I had to abandon my company’s blog or do away with it otherwise.

In the past year or so I’ve learned what it’s like to bear your soul into an ongoing, indefinite project that is all-too-often underappreciated compared to the amount of effort that the project demands. It’s like being father or mother to an idea only to watch that idea get kicked and smashed by its peers in the playground. It’s an effort that can be as rewarding as it is despairingly soul-crushing.

The most offensive thing above all others that I and anyone else have ever called Mr. Arrington is a “hack.” Michael may or may not be the things that I listed earlier, but the one thing that he most certainly is not is a “hack.” The one thing about Michael Arrington’s character that is plainly obvious is his passion for his work on TechCrunch and his endless pursuit of stories in the rapidly-changing world of high technology. It is clear that TechCrunch is, if nothing else, a reflection of the totality of the character of the man who fathered it. It’s edgy, it’s detailed, it’s on the cutting edge, and above all things it clearly represents the passions of the people who slavishly devote themselves to it. To us it may just be a blog, but to Arrington it’s his life’s work, whether he’ll admit to it or not. To call the man a “hack” you’d have to ignore the mountain of evidence to the contrary – hacks don’t care about the truth nor do they care about their reputation beyond when it is merely convenient for them to do so. Michael clearly cares about both.

From my own experience working on a blog that would be lucky to have one one-hundredth of the readers that TechCrunch has I’ve learned to empathize with the man. I’ve learned what it’s like to see something you love dismissed with outright disdain and scorn from people who appreciate nothing about the monumental effort taken to give them value in return for their attention. Worst of all, I’ve realized that I myself had acted the part of the disdainful, scornful ingrate when I had no right to do so, and it took being in Mike’s shoes to realize it. Well, probably a much smaller pair of shoes than Mike, but you get the idea.

I doubt that Mike will ever read this, but I just wanted him to know that he is truly a Man in Full in the sense which Tom Wolfe intended it – he’s a man who constantly stands up the strain and scorn of the masses and retains his self-worth contrary to the routine presentation of abrasive criticism, much of it unwarranted, from people who would kill to have a sliver of what he has built from scratch. TechCrunch was not the same with him gone and I found myself reading it less and less until he returned. I appreciate Mike’s thoroughness, his passion, and the entertainment that he provides to me and my co-workers, friends, and family free of charge.

I’m a person who’s naturally quick to anger, quick to cut someone down, and even quicker to cut someone down behind the comfortable anonymity of the Internet. That kind of vitriol does us no good – we must never forget that behind every blog, behind every business, and behind every social media identity there is a group of people who are trying as hard as they can to provide some value or a service. All too often I attack those blogs, businesses, and amorphous social media identities for being sloppy, careless, or any number of easily pardonable mistakes. When I attack those things I’m attacking a person, like Mike Arrington, and in the future we would all be served well to remember that.

 

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How to Calculate ROI

I posted an entry on Working Smarter explaining how to calculate simple ROI in order to properly prioritize projects and get your co-workers to buy-in to new initiatives. I figured that my readers here might find this helpful; here’s an excerpt from “How to Calculate ROI:”

Return on Investment means a lot of things; it means one thing in the world of accounting, another in the world of financial investments, and it means another in the scope of project management. We’re just managers of one sort or another here at Working Smarter, and we use ROI as a figure to illustrate the costs and benefits of our projects. We find that calculating ROI helps us avoid pitfall projects, helps get our co-workers to buy-in to project ideas, and helps us prioritize how we use our resources.

However, when I do calculate ROI for a project or a new marketing initiative it can be drastically helpful for my co-workers, my boss, and the other teams within our organization who might be involved in some way, shape, or form. ROI figures help them buy into the project and help them prioritize their projects accordingly – something with an ostensibly high return on investment will be prioritized ahead of things with uncertain or perceptibly low ROI.

As always, if you have suggestions for improving it, I am always open to them. Feel free to contact me with recommendations or suggestions.

 

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The Law of Unintended Consequences and No-Follow

Of all of my del.icio.us favorites this week, I found these two stories about the highly negative impact that rel=”nofollow” has had in search to be the most fascinating.

First, let’s learn about how nofollow inadvertently creates “SEO blackholes” which end up favoring less accurate mega-sites like About.com, Answers.com, and WikiPedia instead of more accurate, more detailed niche sites. From SEO Blackhat:

Black Hole SEO employs a technique that causes the normal laws of Google Physics to break down. Link juice flows into a massive body, but can never escape. When employed on a massive body, it tends to dominate the SERPs.

A black hole site is created when an tier 1 authority site ceases to link out to other sites. If a reference is needed, the information is rewritten and a reference page is created within the black hole. All (or virtually all) external links on the site are made nofollow.

The first example of a black hole site was the wikipedia. The internal links formed a network that passed link juice from one page to another allowing obscure articles with no external links to rank number 1 in the SERPs. This #1 ranking begets natural links from external links. When a webizen wants a quick reference, they consult Google and link to one of the top results. This causes more link juice to flow into the black hole and the body’s trust becomes more and more massive over time.

1. Link juice flows in, but it can never escape.
2. External Sites lose link juice at the expense of the black hole.
3. The relative link juice mass of the black hole expands exponentially.

Major sites like Wikipedia, the New York Times, BusinessWeek, Bnet, and other “something for everyone” sites will eventually dominate the rankings for most major keywords should this trend continue, the author argues. Eventually ~70% of Google’s top 10 search results could be dominated by 40 sites or less.

Although I haven’t seen any numbers to verify this, I believe that the author’s explanation of how this will happen under Google’s current algorithm is believable. A fascinating ramification of the law of unintended consequences – Google actually gets worse search results as a result of nofollow links. Heh.

The next thing is about how many fanastic links distributed via microblogging (read: Twitter) are grossly devalued as a result of nofollow. From SEOMoz:

My understanding of the original intent of proffering nofollow as a solution to the problem of linking to untrusted places was that it was mainly intended for situations like blog comments, profile links, etc., where users of your site could create links to wherever they pleased.

This is definitely valuable (as anyone who has ever had to moderate blog comments can attest) but what about once you do trust the commenter? Since so many sites have no mechanism whereby that nofollow is ever removed, we end up in a situation where people are creating huge amounts of really valuable content and the links they create are nofollow.

In my opinion, some of the most “valuable” links on the internet at the moment are nofollow. Some examples:

  • The average quality of outbound links from Wikipedia is incredibly high
  • Many people are leaving their RSS feed readers untouched and getting their news via links their friends drop on Twitter
  • We know many sites whose biggest sources of traffic after search are links which happen to be nofollow (leading to interesting discussion of the effects on the random surfer model)

So not only does nofollow end up crowding out great niche sites from organic search results in favor of less detailed information from megasites, but it also prevents Google’s users from discovering legitimately valuable content from these types of sources.

I think Will from SEOMoz has an excellent point – as microblogging starts to become a much more significant factor in how people share links, Google is simply going to have to start accounting for it in some way, shape, or form. The same goes for the other three examples he listed.

Moreover, Google is absolutely going to have to do something to prevent a handful of megasites which have seemingly shallow coverage of a large number of topics from dominating the search results, as that would inherently make Google less useful. If most organic search results are dominated by 40 websites, then guess what? Are we really going to need Google to find anything anymore, or will we go straight to Wikipedia/About/Bnet/Answer? Hmm…

Good going, Google.

 

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Poll: Does it Creep You Out When Companies Follow You on Twitter?

Everywhere I look I see PR people recommend following your customers on Twitter – and they mean this specifically:

You see someone mention your product on Twitter via Twitter Search.

Follow them.

Observe, converse, and engage.

Sounds simple enough, right? But for the life of me I can’t get into it – I manage my company’s Twitter account and the only instance in which I feel comfortable contacting a customer is when they’re experiencing a technical problem of some sort.

I’m the gunshy social media maven when it comes to my business’ account I suppose :( – I simply feel like it would make people who use our product uncomfortable if I indiscriminately followed them after they mentioned us on Twitter.

So I’d like all of you to help me definitively answer the question listed in the poll below – does it make you feel uncomfortable when a company follows you immediately after you mention one of their products?

POLL: You just tried a new product out and Tweeted about it. Would it creep you out if some customer service person from that company started following on you Twitter after your mention of their product?

View Results

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And if you are feeling particularly generous, I would love it if you could ReTweet this – I’d really love to get a wide sample of opinion on the matter.

Thanks a lot folks, and a happy Friday to you all.

 

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Super Soaker Teaches Us Why Focus Groups Are Important

Did anybody at Super Soaker stop to ask “hey, isn’t this product idea a little ridiculous?” at some point in the product marketing cycle?

Youtube: Oozinator – The Questionable Super Soaker

 

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And This is Why the Stock Market is Crashing

I couldn’t help but notice this comment from Christoper Buckley’s Daily Beast entry this morning “The Audacity of Nope:”

Next, I suppose this is because I don’t live in a rich area, and in fact don’t know anyone who is rich as John McCain would define it, but I don’t care how high taxes go on the wealthy 50% or 60%? Hit me.

On American news all I hear is rich men whining about class warfare, while we have lower tax rates for rich people than any other world power. And these idiots didn’t get rich in China, it was American Labor that made them rich.

Obama in my view is opening up the books and not using buzzwords. A tax cut means a minus in the funds. I don’t think it makes Democrats villains to say they don’t want to live in a country where Donald Trump never has to worry about health care but sick children do. I measure progress in poor Trumps and healthy kids.

In response I’ll repost a bit of what Rich Karlgaard said this morning:

Declare war on “entrepreneurs, investors, business and more” and you get a market crash. Stocks, reflecting our future hopes, have bonked 28% since the November election, 14% since the stimulus passed and 5% since Obama revealed his budget last week.

When you attempt to punish the investment class, the group of people responsible for funding the expansion of business and the creation of jobs, for no reason other than personal envy and a healthy dose of a self-righteous entitlement mentality, you get what we have now: rampant economic decay and the slashing of jobs left and right as a result of the investment class assuming a defensive posture.

When you point the finger at businessmen who became wealthy as the result of their own innovation and imagination and screech “THEY DID IT ONLY BECAUSE OF OUR LABOR” then you are overlooking the most important question of all: “who in the hell would have needed your labor were it not for the people who found a way to make you useful?”

I absolutely loathe and detest this type of ignorant, vitriolic populism and it has no place in this country or any other Western country. The poorest people in this country have opportunities that kids in other parts of the world could only dream of – we sit here and harp about how some percentage of this country’s population is uninsured when people in other parts of the world can’t get clean water, food, or even the rule of law. Our own problems pale in comparison to those of other countries around the world. Instead, we bitch about the income divide as though it’s some great moral, social, and economic injustice.

The “divide of income” in this country is an entirely imaginary, emotional problem; we perceive that the income gap between our poorest and wealthiest citizens is somehow the cause of major societal ills. Let me be blunt: my life is not any worse because someone else makes 1,000 times what I do. In fact, that person has probably made my life better by contributing a valuable service that has made it easier for me in some way, shape, or form.

Even the wealthiest heir or heiress, who did nothing to earn their fortune, makes my life easier because their money sits in some mutual fund or some bank somewhere which helps inject capital into our markets and into our loan system. That heir’s inheritance might have been the initial capital loaned by their bank to a real estate developer to build the shopping mall which rented some space to the coffee shop which makes a latte just the way I like it. My life is better off because of that heir’s wealth.

So when I hear some ignorant shit on some blog harp about taxing the balls off of the rich because the “rich” can take the cut, I can’t help but say out loud “you don’t know what the hell you’re doing, do you? You aren’t thinking about this rationally at all. You really can’t see the cause and effect between the wealth of the rich and your vastly superior standard of living compared to the rest of the world? You think that Government will do a better job,based on what? Empirical evidence? I doubt it.”

I try not to be political on this blog, but this really pisses me off. You want to know why the stock market is plummeting? Because the rich people that commentors like this want to soak are dumping their assets as fast as they can – the biggest problem with the economy is confidence, and this kind of class warfare is exacerbating a legitimate economic slump by attacking the class of people who are going to help get us out of it.

 

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Would You Adopt Something Just Because It’s Free?

A simple Tweet from Talent Zoo CEO Rick Myers sent that little hamster in my brain off onto a furious wheel-rotating rampage this morning. I’m the sort of person who is very hesitant to get my company to adopt something that’s “free” because nothing is truly “free.”

Free LSDEverything has an associated cost with it, whether it’s represented in time or in dollars or both.

During my Google Docs experiment I found out that although I didn’t have to throw down $299 for a student copy of Microsoft Office 2007, I had to spend an inordinate amount of time transferring Word and Excel documents into Google Docs, and even once I had them transferred they were rarely imported in a fully functional state.

After 4-7 weeks of that, I gave up and bought Office 2007, because the $299 was less expensive than the amount of time I spent futzing with my Google Docs documents. Haven’t looked back since.

When I have to recommend new products and services at work, things like content management systems, I am very hesitant to cling to the first acceptable “free” solution because of the hidden costs associated with it. I tend to think about things like:

  • “What happens if it breaks – who will support it?”
  • “How much modification will it take to integrate it with existing systems?
  • “How long will it take the IT team to learn this technology – are there any books, certification programs, or training materials available?”
  • “What happens if we find a major bug – how long will it take to develop a patch for it?”
  • “How long will it take the users of the system to learn how to use it – is it easier to learn this system than the others?”
  • “How will this system be an improvement over our existing system?”
  • “Will this system be better than any of the alternatives for our specific needs?”

And so forth – I think about this for products that aren’t free either, but in the small amount of experience I have had “free” solutions have almost always lost to solutions that have a definite price tag.

So my question to all of you readers, visitors, and disappointed organic search users looking for Facebook.NET development tips is this:

Would you give something a second look just because the visible dollar cost is “zero,” or do you a go through a similar cost/benefits thought process like mine?

 

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